This guy’s web site was linked on Slashdot with the summary that world oil production has peaked, and it can only decrease from here on out. Now, I don’t have a PhD. In fact, apparently that seems to be to my advantage. I don’t need to have a PhD to know that his assumptions are inaccurate. To make his prediction, you need to know the total volume of oil that can be extracted from the Earth. Plain and simple, no one knows this. There are oil fields that are only beginning to be accessible, much less pumpable at this point. Pumping efficiency has also made great strides since the ’60s and ’70s but still has a long way to go. Anyone who claims to know, with any certainty, how much oil is available for extraction from the Earth is lying. Even if he was right, he’s not doing anything useful. Oil, as a major fuel source, will be abandoned long before it runs out. His prediction is that in 2025 we’ll be back to the stone age. I say by 2012 we won’t even remember when oil was expensive. The deman will be so low it will be insignifcant. Huge strides are being made in efficiency, fuel economy, and alternative fuels. Oils days are numbered.

Now where’s my PhD?